Markets · Pre-match
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Paper trading and real bet logging, before kick-off.
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55.1%
win rate
£+4695
P&L
283
bets
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DRY RUN
Execution Health
Live order state and latest reconciliation activity.
Recent execution events
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Win Rate
50.7%
387W
/
376L
of 953
Available
£3,533
£27
at risk across 1 open
Settled953
Open1
Staked (settled)£22038
Avg edge+7.58%
Pre-match P&L
+£2560
+256.0% bankroll
Settled curve with a live now marker and open-risk context.
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Live Equity P&L
+£2560
At Risk
£27
Open
1
Unrealised
£0.00
Live surface
waiting for feed
Last move
waiting for settlement data
·
mark quality pending
Honest measurement
Four-view P&L · pre-match focus
Scale-in validated is the canonical view for strategy decisions — multi-tranche groups that pass conviction + fresh-price guards keep their full P&L. Single-tranche stress is the worst-case bound (strict de-dup clamp). Live-realistic adds tradability filters (min-bet, disabled markets, liquidity ceiling). Headline is the raw book.
Headline
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Scale-in validated
£0
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vs Headline:
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Single-tranche stress
£0
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vs Headline:
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Live-realistic
£0
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Assumptions & methodology
Headline
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Scale-in validated
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Single-tranche stress
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Live-realistic
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Paper
1237 bets
£+7254.35
Real
0 bets
£+0.00
Fixture
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
63.0%
Market odds
1.94
(implied 51.4%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£35.64
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Palace's poor away scoring record against Liverpool's defensive solidity. [stake clamped to £35.64 from £58.50 — £35.64 available on £1455.75 bank]
LOSS
£-35.64
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
82.0%
Market odds
1.33
(implied 75.4%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£63.35
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSV's title charge firepower at home against relegation-threatened Zwolle's porous defense. [stake clamped to £63.35 from £69.04 — £63.35 available on £1481.88 bank]
WIN
£+20.24
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Bologna vs AS Roma
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
29.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£2.76
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Bologna's home form against Roma's inconsistency makes this genuinely competitive European race clash.
LOSS
£-2.76
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Parma vs Pisa
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
51.0%
Market odds
2.21
(implied 45.2%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£10.19
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Parma's home advantage and better recent form gives them edge in mid-table Serie A clash.
WIN
£+12.11
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Hamburger SV vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
48.0%
Market odds
2.37
(implied 42.1%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£9.01
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Hamburg's passionate home support and promotion credentials should edge inconsistent Hoffenheim.
LOSS
£-9.01
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
64.0%
Market odds
1.91
(implied 52.2%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£67.92
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leverkusen's invincible form and class should easily overcome relegated Köln despite emotional home support.
WIN
£+60.84
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
30.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£3.45
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Heidenheim's home advantage in relegation battle against St. Pauli who struggle away from Hamburg.
LOSS
£-3.45
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
29.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£2.76
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Frankfurt's European ambitions and better squad quality edges close contest against stubborn Augsburg.
WIN
£+8.08
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
60.0%
Market odds
1.99
(implied 50.2%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£47.34
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Bayern's title charge and superior quality should overcome Mainz despite their defensive organization.
WIN
£+46.11
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
46.0%
Market odds
2.37
(implied 42.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£6.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Wolfsburg's home form edges tight mid-table battle against equally inconsistent Gladbach.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.07
(implied 48.2%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£10.96
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Real Madrid's title credentials should overcome Betis despite hostile Seville atmosphere.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
29.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£2.76
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Brest's home form edges out Lens in tight mid-table battle with both sides inconsistent.
WIN
£+8.08
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Oviedo vs Villarreal
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
53.0%
Market odds
2.12
(implied 47.1%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£15.71
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Villarreal's European pedigree and squad depth should overcome lower-division Oviedo despite away factor.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
45.0%
Market odds
2.49
(implied 40.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£6.90
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Rayo's attacking style at home gives them edge over defensively suspect Espanyol.
WIN
£+10.10
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Levante vs Sevilla
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
29.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£2.76
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 1.0x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Two inconsistent sides make this genuinely competitive with slight home edge for Levante.
LOSS
£-2.76
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Wolves vs Tottenham
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
66.0%
Market odds
1.59
(implied 62.7%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£7.55
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Tottenham's attacking volatility against Wolves' counter-attacking threat creates goal potential.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
West Ham vs Everton
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
68.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£26.58
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' defensive struggles and attacking desperation in relegation battle suggests goals.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Charlton vs Ipswich
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
64.0%
Market odds
1.70
(implied 59.0%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£8.09
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Ipswich quality clear but Championship unpredictability warrants draw protection.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Real Sociedad vs Getafe
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
65.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£19.33
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Getafe's defensive approach and Real Sociedad's controlled style suggests low-scoring affair.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£16.47
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's defensive solidity at home against Newcastle's inconsistent attack favours one-sided scoring.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Leicester vs Millwall
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
62.0%
Market odds
1.89
(implied 52.8%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£18.12
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Millwall's defensive approach against Leicester's controlled style suggests cagey encounter.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
71.0%
Market odds
1.54
(implied 64.7%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£14.41
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSG's attacking quality at home against injury-hit Nantes defence creates scoring opportunities.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Feyenoord vs Groningen
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£5.33
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Feyenoord title chase intensity against already-relegated Groningen suggests emphatic win.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Napoli vs Cremonese
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
69.0%
Market odds
1.65
(implied 60.8%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£22.30
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Napoli's class advantage at home suggests comfortable victory margin against promoted side.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
73.0%
Market odds
1.50
(implied 66.8%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£13.59
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Liverpool's Anfield attacking intensity against Palace's defensive frailties points to goals.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Barcelona vs Celta Vigo
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
72.0%
Market odds
1.79
(implied 55.7%)
Edge
+16.0%
Kelly stake
£45.30
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Barcelona's attacking prowess meets Celta's leaky defence but away side has scoring threat.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
78.0%
Market odds
1.45
(implied 69.2%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£39.87
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSV's attacking dominance at home against weak PEC Zwolle defence suggests high-scoring affair.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
65.0%
Market odds
1.81
(implied 55.1%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£22.10
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's Emirates dominance and title race urgency overcomes Newcastle's defensive solidity.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
West Ham vs Everton
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
48.0%
Market odds
2.32
(implied 43.0%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£4.26
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
West Ham's London Stadium advantage edges relegation six-pointer against equally desperate Everton.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
74.0%
Market odds
1.53
(implied 65.1%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£33.22
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Liverpool's Anfield fortress and title ambitions overwhelming against inconsistent Palace.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Wolves vs Tottenham
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
41.0%
Market odds
2.85
(implied 35.1%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£3.65
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Tottenham's superior attacking firepower and squad depth overcomes Wolves' Molineux resilience.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
38.0%
Market odds
2.85
(implied 35.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.83
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Evenly-matched Premier League encounter with Fulham home factor balancing Villa's European quality.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Feyenoord vs Groningen
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
83.0%
Market odds
1.47
(implied 68.2%)
Edge
+15.0%
Kelly stake
£79.52
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Feyenoord title-chasing dominance at home against relegated Groningen creates massive mismatch.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
West Brom vs Ipswich
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
37.0%
Market odds
3.44
(implied 29.1%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£5.92
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Ipswich promotion quality edges West Brom despite injury concerns and hostile Hawthorns atmosphere.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Alverca vs Arouca
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
38.0%
Market odds
2.77
(implied 36.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Tight encounter between mid-table sides with Arouca's slight away form advantage over Alverca.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.12
(implied 47.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£5.01
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Başakşehir home advantage and superior squad depth edge close Istanbul derby against Kasımpaşa.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Napoli vs Cremonese
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
78.0%
Market odds
1.53
(implied 65.1%)
Edge
+13.0%
Kelly stake
£47.99
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Napoli's title-calibre squad at home against newly-promoted Cremonese creates enormous quality differential.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
42.0%
Market odds
2.62
(implied 38.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£2.78
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Brest's European form at home edges tight encounter against inconsistent Lens in competitive fixture.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Leicester vs Millwall
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
68.0%
Market odds
1.78
(implied 56.0%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£30.28
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leicester's promotion-winning quality and home fortress advantage overwhelming against defensive Millwall.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
63.0%
Market odds
1.81
(implied 55.1%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£17.68
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
RB Leipzig home strength and superior attacking quality decisive against defensively solid Union Berlin.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Barcelona vs Celta Vigo
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
72.0%
Market odds
1.53
(implied 65.1%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£14.68
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Barcelona home dominance clear despite Raphinha injury concerns against defensively weak Celta.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Casa Pia vs SC Braga
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
46.0%
Market odds
2.62
(implied 38.1%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£8.89
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
SC Braga's European quality and away form superior to mid-table Casa Pia despite home advantage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
75.0%
Market odds
1.53
(implied 65.1%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£36.91
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSV title-chasing quality at home against relegation-threatened PEC Zwolle creates massive gap.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Real Sociedad vs Getafe
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.99
(implied 50.2%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£14.50
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Real Sociedad home strength overcomes Sergio Gomez suspension against defensive Getafe missing Mayoral.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
41.0%
Market odds
2.62
(implied 38.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£2.08
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
AZ Alkmaar slight favourites but GO Ahead Eagles competitive at home in tight encounter.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Elche vs Atletico Madrid
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
63.0%
Market odds
2.07
(implied 48.2%)
Edge
+15.0%
Kelly stake
£31.46
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Atletico Madrid class overwhelming despite extensive injury list including Sorloth and Gimenez.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
47.0%
Market odds
2.55
(implied 39.2%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£9.29
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Sparta Rotterdam's superior quality evident despite Telstar home factor and minor injury concerns.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Charlton vs Ipswich
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
47.0%
Market odds
2.85
(implied 35.1%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£11.69
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Ipswich promotion quality clear despite injury list against relegation-threatened Charlton.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.07
(implied 48.2%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£2.94
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Middlesbrough home advantage decisive despite injury concerns with Sheffield Wednesday missing Bernard.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Sheffield Utd vs Blackburn
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
48.0%
Market odds
2.32
(implied 43.0%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£4.26
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Sheffield United's injury list balanced by Blackburn's extensive absences including key forwards.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Birmingham vs Preston
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
45.0%
Market odds
2.37
(implied 42.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.72
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Birmingham missing key players against Preston's Brady injury concerns make this tight.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
82.0%
Market odds
1.43
(implied 70.1%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£55.63
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.1x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSG at home against injury-hit Nantes with Vitinha returning creates massive class gap.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
AZ Alkmaar vs GO Ahead Eagles
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
71.0%
Market odds
1.68
(implied 59.7%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£31.98
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Eredivisie's high-scoring nature and AZ's attacking quality creates goal value.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
West Ham vs Everton
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.94
(implied 51.4%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£5.84
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' recent low-scoring trends and defensive setups.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Leicester vs Millwall
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£16.47
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leicester's promotion desperation and home advantage suggests comfortable victory.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Napoli vs Cremonese
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
69.0%
Market odds
1.72
(implied 58.3%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£27.69
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Napoli's attacking power against Cremonese's defensive vulnerabilities.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Manchester United vs Brentford
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
65.0%
Market odds
1.79
(implied 55.7%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£20.39
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
United's defensive inconsistency and Brentford's counter-attacking threat.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
68.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£26.58
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSV's home dominance against weak opposition suggests multi-goal victory.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
72.0%
Market odds
1.70
(implied 59.0%)
Edge
+13.0%
Kelly stake
£33.65
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' attacking quality and Real's need for goals creates high-scoring potential.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Wolves vs Tottenham
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
75.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+21.0%
Kelly stake
£55.96
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Spurs' superiority provides value on avoiding draw with handicap coverage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
31.0%
Market odds
3.69
(implied 27.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£1.17
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Even match between mid-table sides with slight home advantage for Brest.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
57.0%
Market odds
1.99
(implied 50.2%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£7.93
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Madrid's title push and superior squad depth provides clear away win value despite Betis home advantage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Manchester United vs Brentford
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.88
(implied 53.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£6.36
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
United's Old Trafford record against Brentford's vulnerability away from home creates home advantage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Placed
2026-04-22
Source
PAPER
Model probability
35.0%
Market odds
3.12
(implied 32.0%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.12
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Forest's away form and Sunderland's inconsistency create tight odds with slight away value.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Oviedo vs Villarreal
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
1.99
(implied 50.2%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Villarreal's class advantage should produce comfortable margin despite key injuries.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
55.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£28.99
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Villa's slight edge in evenly-matched fixture with draw protection against Fulham's home resilience.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.79
(implied 55.7%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leipzig's attacking firepower combined with Union's counter-threat suggests mutual scoring.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Leicester vs Millwall
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
61.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£6.53
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leicester's attacking quality against Millwall's vulnerable defense in high-stakes promotion clash.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Napoli vs Cremonese
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
56.0%
Market odds
2.19
(implied 45.6%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£16.61
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Napoli's fast starts at home against weak opposition creates first-half value.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.89
(implied 52.8%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£6.29
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's quality gap and Newcastle's European fatigue supports comfortable home victory margin.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
64.0%
Market odds
2.04
(implied 48.9%)
Edge
+15.0%
Kelly stake
£32.36
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' defensive approach and Espanyol's low away scoring suggests tight low-scoring encounter.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
69.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+21.0%
Kelly stake
£43.24
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Palace's poor away attacking record against Liverpool's defensive solidity suggests one-sided affair.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
West Ham vs Everton
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
44.0%
Market odds
2.49
(implied 40.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£2.42
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.8x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Bowen's consistent home form against Everton's defensive fragility offers value
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Wolves vs Tottenham
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
49.0%
Market odds
2.24
(implied 44.6%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£3.62
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.8x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Son's pace on counter against Wolves' high line creates goal and assist opportunities
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.89
(implied 52.8%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£5.03
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.8x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Watkins' aerial threat against Fulham's set-piece weakness provides goal scoring edge
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£4.12
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.8x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Saka's creativity against Newcastle's makeshift defense offers multiple routes to points
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
67.0%
Market odds
1.65
(implied 60.8%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£8.36
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.8x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Salah's exceptional home form and Palace's defensive vulnerabilities create strong scoring value
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
29.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£1.51
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Villa's superior squad depth and European experience should edge tight London encounter against in-form Fulham.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
42.0%
Market odds
2.85
(implied 35.1%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£2.98
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Sunderland's home fortress advantage against Forest's inconsistent away form makes this competitive despite Premier League quality gap.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Oviedo vs Villarreal
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
60.0%
Market odds
1.91
(implied 52.2%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£15.76
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Villarreal's class difference should overcome Oviedo despite missing key players Foyth and Costa through injury.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.49
(implied 40.1%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£10.15
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Rayo's home form and Espanyol's away struggles make home win value despite key injuries to Lejeune and Felipe.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Levante vs Sevilla
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
31.0%
Market odds
3.84
(implied 26.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£1.99
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Sevilla's superior quality should prevail despite Levante's home advantage and recent relegation battle form.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
41.0%
Market odds
2.74
(implied 36.5%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£2.27
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Rayo's aggressive early pressing at Vallecas often yields first-half dominance against weaker sides.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Levante vs Sevilla
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
59.0%
Market odds
1.94
(implied 51.4%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£10.68
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Sevilla quality with draw insurance given Levante's stubborn home record this season.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.24
(implied 44.6%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£8.12
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Newcastle's defensive solidity away from home could limit Arsenal's typically free-flowing attack.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Wolves vs Tottenham
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
68.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£26.58
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and Tottenham's attacking quality suggests mutual scoring likely.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Leipzig vs Union Berlin
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.99
(implied 50.2%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£14.50
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leipzig's home dominance and Union's away struggles suggest comfortable home victory margin.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Napoli vs Cremonese
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
71.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+23.0%
Kelly stake
£47.36
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Cremonese's poor away scoring record against Napoli's improving home defensive structure.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
16.0%
Market odds
8.30
(implied 12.0%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's Emirates fortress and title credentials should see off Newcastle despite the Magpies' quality.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
37.0%
Market odds
3.02
(implied 33.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£1.56
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Villa's Champions League pedigree and attacking depth gives them a narrow edge at Craven Cottage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Levante vs Sevilla
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
40.0%
Market odds
2.69
(implied 37.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.40
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Sevilla's superior squad quality and away form gives them slight edge despite Levante's home advantage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
56.0%
Market odds
1.99
(implied 50.2%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£4.76
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Ligue 1's attacking trends and both teams' recent goal-heavy matches favor high-scoring encounter.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Levante vs Sevilla
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
61.0%
Market odds
1.79
(implied 55.7%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£4.96
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities suggest mutual scoring.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Casa Pia vs SC Braga
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£11.53
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Casa Pia's defensive approach against Braga's tactical discipline suggests tight affair.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Oviedo vs Villarreal
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
63.0%
Market odds
1.70
(implied 59.0%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£6.47
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Villarreal's quality advantage minimizes draw risk despite injury concerns.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
45.0%
Market odds
2.49
(implied 40.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£2.64
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leipzig's fast starts at home and Champions League motivation suggest early advantage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
GO Ahead Eagles vs AZ Alkmaar
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
73.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+16.0%
Kelly stake
£33.83
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Eredivisie's attacking nature and both teams' scoring patterns favor goals at both ends.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Leicester vs Millwall
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
89.0%
Market odds
1.25
(implied 80.3%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£65.24
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leicester's attacking capability and promotion urgency should produce multiple goals.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
68.0%
Market odds
1.94
(implied 51.4%)
Edge
+17.0%
Kelly stake
£40.53
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Espanyol's poor away scoring record against Rayo's injury-hit defense suggests low-scoring affair.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Alverca vs Arouca
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
28.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Close mid-table battle with slight home advantage for Alverca against similarly-positioned Arouca.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Lyon vs Auxerre
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
54.0%
Market odds
2.04
(implied 48.9%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£3.78
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Lyon's home advantage and superior quality should produce comfortable victory.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
65.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£13.53
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities favour goals.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Getafe vs Barcelona
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
59.0%
Market odds
1.99
(implied 50.2%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£11.42
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Getafe's defensive structure limits Barcelona's attacking output despite quality advantage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Angers vs Paris Saint Germain
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
61.0%
Market odds
1.94
(implied 51.4%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£19.07
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSG's overwhelming quality against weak Angers defence suggests comfortable victory.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.19
(implied 45.6%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£4.62
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Bayern's attacking prowess and desperate title chase should produce goals.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
72.0%
Market odds
1.65
(implied 60.8%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£30.67
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Real Madrid's attacking firepower against Betis' capable home attack.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Kayserispor vs Rizespor
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
45.0%
Market odds
2.32
(implied 43.0%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Evenly matched Turkish sides with marginal home edge.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
48.0%
Market odds
2.21
(implied 45.2%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.95
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Eyüpspor's home advantage in Turkish relegation battle.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Toulouse vs Monaco
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
40.0%
Market odds
2.85
(implied 35.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£2.13
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Monaco's European ambitions and superior quality favour them away at Toulouse.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Angers vs Paris Saint Germain
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
69.0%
Market odds
1.72
(implied 58.3%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£27.69
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSG's overwhelming quality should easily dispatch relegation-threatened Angers.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Lyon vs Auxerre
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.91
(implied 52.2%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£7.39
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Lyon's superior squad depth and home advantage should overcome Auxerre's defensive setup.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Hellas Verona vs Lecce
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
46.0%
Market odds
2.32
(implied 43.0%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.79
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Verona's home form gives them edge in crucial relegation six-pointer.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Bologna vs AS Roma
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
33.0%
Market odds
3.44
(implied 29.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£1.29
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Roma's individual quality gives them marginal edge against well-organised Bologna.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Parma vs Pisa
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
47.0%
Market odds
2.26
(implied 44.2%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.87
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Parma's home advantage gives them slight edge in this Serie A encounter.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Hamburger SV vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
34.0%
Market odds
3.22
(implied 31.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.07
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Hamburg's promotion ambitions clash with Hoffenheim's European aspirations in balanced encounter.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.26
(implied 44.2%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£11.41
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leverkusen's title-winning quality should overcome Köln's desperate relegation fight.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
49.0%
Market odds
2.21
(implied 45.2%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£2.60
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Heidenheim's home advantage in crucial relegation battle against newly-promoted St. Pauli.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
41.0%
Market odds
2.77
(implied 36.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£2.23
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Frankfurt's European pedigree and attacking threat favour them away at Augsburg.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
64.0%
Market odds
1.81
(implied 55.1%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£19.89
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Bayern's title race desperation and superior quality should overcome Mainz's home resistance.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
43.0%
Market odds
2.43
(implied 41.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Evenly matched Bundesliga mid-table clash with marginal home advantage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
54.0%
Market odds
2.03
(implied 49.2%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£3.81
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Atletico's home fortress and Simeone's tactical advantage over Basque opposition.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Valencia vs Girona
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
31.0%
Market odds
3.69
(implied 27.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£1.17
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Girona's European campaign experience gives them slight edge over struggling Valencia.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Getafe vs Barcelona
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
2.03
(implied 49.2%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£15.68
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Barcelona's superior quality should overcome Getafe's defensive resilience despite rotation concerns.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Alaves vs Mallorca
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
44.0%
Market odds
2.43
(implied 41.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.65
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Evenly matched mid-table Spanish sides with slight home edge for Alaves.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Alverca vs Arouca
Placed
2026-04-23
Source
PAPER
Model probability
33.0%
Market odds
3.32
(implied 30.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£1.02
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Tight encounter between lower-table Portuguese sides with marginal away value.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
West Ham vs Everton
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
67.0%
Market odds
1.65
(implied 60.8%)
Edge
+6.4%
Kelly stake
£6.39
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
West Ham favoured but draw insurance valuable in tight contest. [stake clamped to £6.39 from £7.81 — £6.39 available on £1679.75 bank]
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
51.0%
Market odds
2.19
(implied 45.6%)
Edge
+5.5%
Kelly stake
£3.63
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's fast starts at home create first-half value.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
42.0%
Market odds
2.74
(implied 36.5%)
Edge
+5.6%
Kelly stake
£2.54
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Liverpool's Anfield dominance could produce emphatic victory.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+10.4%
Kelly stake
£11.99
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leipzig's superior quality should produce convincing home win.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
67.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+12.9%
Kelly stake
£27.50
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams averaging 1.4+ xG/game with leaky defences.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Stade Brestois vs Lens
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
60.0%
Market odds
1.72
(implied 58.3%)
Edge
+1.8%
Kelly stake
£1.13
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 0.8x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.5x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Lens's superior quality shows against Brest despite home advantage.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_accidental_historical_backfill_20260426
Fixture
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
56.0%
Market odds
1.89
(implied 52.8%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£9.72
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Simeone's defensive approach against Arsenal's cautious away CL style suggests low-scoring.
WIN
£+8.52
Settled 2026-04-29
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
88.0%
Market odds
1.25
(implied 80.3%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£159.91
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's home dominance makes them strong favorites to avoid defeat.
WIN
£+38.55
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
73.0%
Market odds
1.50
(implied 66.8%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£37.48
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Liverpool's attacking firepower at Anfield typically produces high-scoring games.
WIN
£+18.22
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Napoli vs Cremonese
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£10.29
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Quality gap suggests Napoli should win comfortably at home.
WIN
£+8.51
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
68.0%
Market odds
1.65
(implied 60.8%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£33.64
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leipzig's attacking prowess against Union's weakened defense points to goals.
WIN
£+21.26
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
64.0%
Market odds
1.70
(implied 59.0%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£15.62
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Betis attack at home combined with Madrid's defensive injuries suggests goals for both.
WIN
£+10.64
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
62.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£14.58
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams have struggled for goals recently with defensive focus likely.
LOSS
£-14.58
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
38.0%
Market odds
2.93
(implied 34.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£6.44
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's CL momentum meets Atletico's Wanda Metropolitano fortress in cagey first leg.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-29
Fixture
Manchester United vs Brentford
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£10.29
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
United's Old Trafford record against Brentford's compact defensive approach.
WIN
£+8.51
Settled 2026-04-27
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
71.0%
Market odds
1.47
(implied 68.2%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£19.94
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's Emirates dominance and title push motivation against Newcastle's European hangover.
WIN
£+9.11
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
West Ham United vs Everton
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
44.0%
Market odds
2.37
(implied 42.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.27
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
West Ham's home advantage against Everton's relegation battling mentality.
WIN
£+1.71
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
72.0%
Market odds
1.47
(implied 68.2%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£26.58
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Liverpool's Anfield dominance and Salah contract resolution boost against Palace's travel struggles.
WIN
£+12.14
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Leicester vs Millwall
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.78
(implied 56.0%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£2.21
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leicester's promotion push backed by home form despite Kristiansen injury.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Napoli vs Cremonese
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
78.0%
Market odds
1.33
(implied 75.4%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£28.39
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Napoli's superior quality against promoted Cremonese despite Lukaku injury concerns.
WIN
£+9.07
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
71.0%
Market odds
1.45
(implied 69.2%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£5.55
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leipzig's home form dominates - Union's key injuries weaken their defensive structure significantly.
WIN
£+2.43
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Getafe vs Barcelona
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
55.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£13.91
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Getafe's defensive setup against Barcelona's potential rotation creates low-scoring affair.
WIN
£+14.91
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
59.0%
Market odds
1.94
(implied 51.4%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£42.08
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Stuttgart's European form and home advantage creates multi-goal winning expectation.
LOSS
£-42.08
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.19
(implied 45.6%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£12.75
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Bayern's attacking firepower against Mainz's open defensive approach creates high-scoring potential.
WIN
£+14.91
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Manchester United vs Brentford
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
66.0%
Market odds
1.70
(implied 59.0%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£21.86
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
United's home attacking threat against Brentford's counter-attacking style creates goals.
WIN
£+14.89
Settled 2026-04-27
Fixture
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
73.0%
Market odds
1.59
(implied 62.7%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£91.62
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Dortmund's home attacking dominance and title push urgency against Freiburg's open style.
WIN
£+53.42
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Napoli vs Cremonese
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
71.0%
Market odds
1.65
(implied 60.8%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£76.88
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Napoli's home attacking threat against Cremonese's leaky defense creates high-scoring potential.
WIN
£+48.60
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
62.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+14.0%
Kelly stake
£44.52
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's defensive solidity at home against Newcastle's inconsistent attack.
WIN
£+47.73
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
75.0%
Market odds
1.39
(implied 72.2%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£24.03
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Dortmund's title challenge momentum at home against Freiburg's inconsistent away record.
WIN
£+9.09
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
67.0%
Market odds
1.55
(implied 64.3%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£16.73
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Stuttgart's European push at home against relegation-threatened Bremen's poor away form.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
27.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Even contest with Frankfurt's European quality against Augsburg's home resilience.
WIN
£+2.93
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
51.0%
Market odds
2.03
(implied 49.2%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.68
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Atletico's home strength against Athletic's European ambitions in tight contest.
WIN
£+1.70
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
71.0%
Market odds
1.49
(implied 67.3%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£25.50
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's title credentials at Emirates against Newcastle's inconsistent season despite strong squad depth.
WIN
£+12.15
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
28.0%
Market odds
3.99
(implied 25.1%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£2.19
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Tight contest between European hopefuls with Brest's home form marginally favoring them.
WIN
£+6.41
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
26.0%
Market odds
4.16
(implied 24.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Madrid's title push against injury-hit Betis, but Betis have strong home record against big teams.
WIN
£+3.09
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
38.0%
Market odds
2.77
(implied 36.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Evenly matched mid-table sides with Sunderland slight home edge but Forest having better away form recently.
LOSS
£-1.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Valencia vs Girona
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
59.0%
Market odds
1.79
(implied 55.7%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£8.20
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both sides' attacking capabilities and defensive inconsistencies favor mutual scoring.
WIN
£+6.39
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
West Ham vs Everton
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
58.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£10.29
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
West Ham's slight edge with draw insurance in evenly-matched encounter.
WIN
£+8.51
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Wolves vs Tottenham
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
54.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£13.91
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Wolves' defensive setup and Tottenham's inconsistent away finishing favor low-scoring game.
WIN
£+14.91
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern Munich
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
71.0%
Market odds
1.70
(implied 59.0%)
Edge
+12.0%
Kelly stake
£59.97
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Elite attacking quality on both sides in crucial Champions League knockout tie.
WIN
£+40.85
Settled 2026-04-28
Fixture
Manchester United vs Brentford
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
47.0%
Market odds
2.39
(implied 41.8%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£9.37
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
United's strong home starts and Brentford's slow away beginnings favor early lead.
WIN
£+12.79
Settled 2026-04-27
Fixture
Lyon vs Auxerre
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
63.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+9.0%
Kelly stake
£37.04
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Lyon's home attacking prowess against Auxerre's defensive struggles suggests goals.
WIN
£+30.64
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
68.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£51.30
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities favor mutual scoring.
LOSS
£-51.30
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Mainz vs Bayern Munich
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
77.0%
Market odds
1.40
(implied 71.6%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£46.85
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Bayern's quality edge with draw insurance against potential Mainz resilience.
WIN
£+18.18
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Angers vs Paris Saint Germain
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
56.0%
Market odds
2.04
(implied 48.9%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£20.82
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSG's title push and Angers' defensive fragility suggests comfortable away win.
WIN
£+21.30
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.24
(implied 44.6%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£22.39
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Dortmund's attacking firepower at home could produce high-scoring encounter.
WIN
£+27.27
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Lyon vs Auxerre
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
64.0%
Market odds
1.64
(implied 61.2%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£14.64
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Lyon's superior quality and home advantage against newly-promoted Auxerre's struggles.
WIN
£+9.11
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
23.0%
Market odds
5.86
(implied 17.1%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£3.84
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Stuttgart's home dominance and European chase against Bremen's poor away record.
WIN
£+18.30
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC St. Pauli
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
30.0%
Market odds
3.56
(implied 28.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Tight relegation battle with Heidenheim's home advantage slightly favoring them.
LOSS
£-1.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
44.0%
Market odds
2.49
(implied 40.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£5.83
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Wolfsburg's home advantage against Gladbach's inconsistent away performances.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
West Ham vs Everton
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
31.0%
Market odds
3.44
(implied 29.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.5x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Tight contest between two mid-table sides with similar form and quality levels.
LOSS
£-1.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
39.0%
Market odds
3.56
(implied 28.1%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£14.97
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Villa's superior away form and attacking depth gives them edge over inconsistent Fulham.
LOSS
£-14.97
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Manchester United vs Brentford
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
61.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£11.66
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
United's attacking capability against Brentford's counter-attacking threat creates mutual scoring opportunity.
WIN
£+8.51
Settled 2026-04-27
Fixture
Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
73.0%
Market odds
1.54
(implied 64.7%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£72.69
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Champions League knockout intensity with two attacking powerhouses historically produces high-scoring affairs.
WIN
£+38.82
Settled 2026-04-28
Fixture
Bologna vs AS Roma
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
56.0%
Market odds
1.89
(implied 52.8%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£7.29
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities suggest goal-heavy Serie A encounter.
LOSS
£-7.29
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
64.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£41.15
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Atlético's defensive structure against Athletic's conservative approach typically produces low-scoring encounters.
LOSS
£-41.15
Settled 2026-04-28
Fixture
Wolves vs Tottenham
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
69.0%
Market odds
1.70
(implied 59.0%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£71.39
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Both teams' attacking capabilities and defensive inconsistencies strongly favour both scoring outcome.
LOSS
£-71.39
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Angers vs Paris Saint Germain
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
65.0%
Market odds
1.94
(implied 51.4%)
Edge
+14.0%
Kelly stake
£73.64
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
PSG's quality differential against relegation-bound Angers creates value on heavy handicap covering.
WIN
£+68.13
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
29.0%
Market odds
3.69
(implied 27.1%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.00
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Tactical chess match with Atlético's Wanda Metropolitano intensity balancing Arsenal's technical quality in knockout football.
WIN
£+2.64
Settled 2026-04-29
Fixture
Toulouse vs AS Monaco
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
45.0%
Market odds
2.49
(implied 40.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£10.41
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Monaco's European qualification push against Toulouse's home resilience creates away value in competitive fixture.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Bologna vs AS Roma
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
38.0%
Market odds
3.11
(implied 32.1%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£8.84
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Roma's superior squad depth and European ambitions should edge tight encounter at Stadio Dall'Ara.
WIN
£+18.29
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
60.0%
Market odds
1.88
(implied 53.1%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£24.56
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Leverkusen's title credentials against Köln's relegation struggles creates clear quality differential favouring away win.
WIN
£+21.28
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
34.0%
Market odds
3.32
(implied 30.1%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£3.75
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Frankfurt's superior squad quality and European experience gives them edge in tight relegation-European battle.
PUSH
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
70.0%
Market odds
1.67
(implied 60.1%)
Edge
+10.0%
Kelly stake
£74.59
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Bayern's attacking firepower and title race pressure should overwhelm Mainz despite potential rotation concerns.
WIN
£+48.61
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.03
(implied 49.2%)
Edge
+3.0%
Kelly stake
£9.01
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Atlético's Wanda Metropolitano fortress record against Athletic's solid but unspectacular away form favours home win.
WIN
£+9.32
Settled 2026-04-28
Fixture
Valencia vs Girona
Placed
2026-04-24
Source
PAPER
Model probability
50.0%
Market odds
2.07
(implied 48.2%)
Edge
+2.0%
Kelly stake
£1.62
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.1x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Valencia's Mestalla advantage against Girona's inconsistent away form creates home value in crucial fixture.
WIN
£+1.71
Settled 2026-04-26
Fixture
Manchester City vs Tottenham
Placed
2026-04-25
Source
PAPER
Model probability
68.0%
Market odds
1.88
(implied 53.1%)
Edge
+15.0%
Kelly stake
£7.44
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
City's home strength and Tottenham's injury crisis including Romero and Vicario creates substantial home advantage. [stake clamped to £7.44 from £105.28 — £7.44 available on £1679.75 bank]
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-28
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_invalid_source_fixture_20260428
Fixture
Chelsea vs Arsenal
Placed
2026-04-25
Source
PAPER
Model probability
34.0%
Market odds
3.44
(implied 29.1%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£4.46
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Arsenal's superior form and Chelsea's midweek fatigue from Champions League creates slight away edge.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-28
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_invalid_source_fixture_20260428
Fixture
Liverpool vs Brighton
Placed
2026-04-25
Source
PAPER
Model probability
72.0%
Market odds
1.84
(implied 54.2%)
Edge
+18.0%
Kelly stake
£132.28
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.5x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 1.0x
Streak 0.9x
DD 0.75x
Reasoning
Liverpool's home dominance against Brighton's poor away form creates significant edge despite Alisson's absence.
MAINTENANCE VOID
£+0.00
Settled 2026-04-28
Preserved for audit. Excluded from the default trading review because it was created by maintenance cleanup.
voided_invalid_source_fixture_20260428
Fixture
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
Placed
2026-04-26
Source
PAPER
Model probability
79.0%
Market odds
1.35
(implied 74.3%)
Edge
+5.0%
Kelly stake
£38.04
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.5x
Streak 0.9x
DD 1.0x
Reasoning
Strong home preference with draw protection given Palace's defensive resilience.
WIN
£+12.90
Settled 2026-05-03
Fixture
Leeds United vs Burnley
Placed
2026-04-26
Source
PAPER
Model probability
35.0%
Market odds
3.49
(implied 28.7%)
Edge
+6.0%
Kelly stake
£8.95
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 1.0x
Reasoning
Leeds promotion desperation against relegated Burnley creates blowout potential.
LOSS
£-8.95
Settled 2026-05-01
Fixture
Manchester United vs Brentford
Placed
2026-04-26
Source
PAPER
Model probability
42.0%
Market odds
2.84
(implied 35.2%)
Edge
+7.0%
Kelly stake
£10.08
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.5x
Streak 0.9x
DD 1.0x
Reasoning
United's class advantage suggests comfortable home victory margin.
LOSS
£-10.08
Settled 2026-04-27
Fixture
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal
Placed
2026-04-26
Source
PAPER
Model probability
52.0%
Market odds
2.09
(implied 47.8%)
Edge
+4.0%
Kelly stake
£9.68
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.25x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.5x
Streak 0.9x
DD 1.0x
Reasoning
Atletico's defensive approach in knockout matches likely limits goal output.
WIN
£+10.38
Settled 2026-04-29
Fixture
Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern Munich
Placed
2026-04-26
Source
PAPER
Model probability
72.0%
Market odds
1.65
(implied 60.8%)
Edge
+11.0%
Kelly stake
£100.95
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 1.0x
Reasoning
Champions League knockout intensity with elite attacking players strongly indicates goals.
WIN
£+63.81
Settled 2026-04-28
Fixture
AC Milan vs Juventus
Placed
2026-04-26
Source
PAPER
Model probability
65.0%
Market odds
1.75
(implied 57.3%)
Edge
+8.0%
Kelly stake
£63.63
Kelly breakdown
Edge 0.4x
Sport 1.2x
Conf 0.7x
Streak 0.9x
DD 1.0x
Reasoning
Both teams' attacking quality and defensive vulnerabilities favour mutual scoring.
LOSS
£-63.63
Settled 2026-04-27
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