Architecture & System Health
Live system topology, feed status, and autoresearch countdown.
Audit & Reconciliation
Latest append-only control records for exchange state, operator actions, and risk.
Autoresearch Countdown
Prompt mutation unlocks after 30-day scored baseline.
Arena Topology
football
Football match prediction — Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, Championship, Eredivisie, Liga Portugal, Süper Lig, MLS. Brier-scored three-way probability calibration + market bets (BTTS, Over/Under, Asian Handicap, Draw No Bet, First Half Result, Correct Score).
nba
NBA game prediction — moneyline, spread, totals. Brier-scored two-way probability calibration on game outcomes.
nfl
NFL game prediction — moneyline, spread, totals. Brier-scored two-way probability calibration.
tennis
Professional tennis match prediction — ATP, WTA, Grand Slams. Brier-scored two-way probability calibration.
golf
Professional golf tournament prediction — PGA Tour, DP World Tour, Majors. Outright winner, top-5, top-10, top-20, head-to-head matchup, and cut predictions.
cricket
Cricket match prediction — IPL, T20 internationals, ODIs, Tests. Brier-scored probability calibration across formats.
rugby
Rugby union match prediction — Six Nations, Rugby Championship, Premiership, URC, Champions Cup, World Cup. Brier-scored probability calibration.
racing
Horse racing prediction — UK/IRE Flat & National Hunt, US Triple Crown, major festivals (Cheltenham, Royal Ascot, Breeders' Cup). Brier-scored win and place probability calibration.
mma
UFC/MMA fight prediction — main cards, Fight Nights, PPV events. Brier-scored two-way probability calibration. Draws occur <1% of the time and are excluded.
darts
PDC darts prediction — Premier League, World Championship, World Matchplay, major TV events. Brier-scored two-way probability calibration.
snooker
World Snooker Tour prediction — World Championship, Masters, UK Championship, ranking events. Brier-scored two-way probability calibration.
boxing
Professional boxing prediction — heavyweight, major title fights, undercards. Brier-scored three-way probability calibration (fighter A, draw, fighter B).
esports
Esports prediction — CS2, League of Legends, Dota 2, Valorant. Best-of series. Brier-scored two-way probability calibration.
Trading Readiness Matrix
Promotion is based on metadata, pricing, resolver coverage, open risk, and review state.
| Arena | Tier | Status | Open | Observed | Settled | P&L | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
football
primary · smarkets
|
TIER 1 | operational trade | 0 | 14.4% | 100.0% | +£7436.14 | clear |
|
golf
supported · not_integrated_outrights
|
TIER 2 | predict watch | 0 | 0.0% | 100.0% | +£0.15 | no observed price feed |
|
mma
supported · not_integrated
|
TIER 2 | predict watch | 0 | 0.0% | 100.0% | £-547.55 | no observed price feed |
|
nba
supported · not_integrated
|
TIER 2 | predict watch | 0 | 0.0% | 100.0% | +£344.89 | no observed price feed |
|
rugby
supported · not_integrated
|
TIER 2 | predict watch | 0 | 0.0% | 100.0% | +£1.54 | no observed price feed |
|
tennis
supported · not_integrated
|
TIER 2 | predict watch | 0 | 0.0% | 100.0% | +£7.80 | no observed price feed |
|
cricket
primary · provider_known_no_exchange_price
|
TIER 3 | research only | 1 | 1.6% | 98.4% | +£11.38 | no observed price feed, 1 open missing kickoff |
|
darts
missing · not_integrated
|
TIER 4 | disabled | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +£0.00 | no resolver, no observed price feed |
|
nfl
missing · not_integrated
|
TIER 4 | disabled | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +£0.00 | no resolver, no observed price feed |
|
racing
missing · not_integrated
|
TIER 4 | disabled | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +£0.00 | no resolver, no observed price feed |
Tier Promotion Ladder
Trade what's earned promotion. Predict what hasn't. Pause what's broken. Sports climb when criteria pass; promotion is auditable per sport and per market.
Promote — to —?
This is an operator action. The decision is appended to
operator_audit_events with
action=tier.upgrade and is
immutable (append-only). For tier_1a, this enables real-money
trade-eligible status (live trading still requires
SMARKETS_LIVE_ENABLED and all
can_go_live() gates).
review_tier_upgrade() verbatim — when
promotion_policy.py formalises per-tier gates
(de-duplicated outcome count, ECE per edge bucket, closing-odds capture, rolling CLV),
this ladder picks them up without UI changes.
— · — → —
Live snapshot from /api/tier/promotion-progress.
Closing-Mark Capture
≥80% capture rate is a tier_1a promotion gate. In-play marks are captured by the price refresher; pre-match marks via the odds tracker.
| Sport · Timing | All-time capture | Recent 7d | Open | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No (sport, timing) splits available. | ||||